FCGForensic Capital GovernanceBooks and leadership
Concept 02All concepts

The Green Project Problem

Can delivery appear healthy after the investment logic has weakened?

Why delivery status and investment quality are related—but not the same governing question.

FCG / Decision architecture

Evidence before capital moves

  1. 01

    Funded belief

    The assumptions, outcomes, constraints, and value logic that justified commitment.

    Current lens
  2. 02

    Current evidence

    The authoritative record of what has changed, been proven, or remains uncertain.

    Record object
  3. 03

    Four realities

    Business, delivery, technical, and financial evidence reconciled across boundaries.

    Record object
  4. 04

    Governing condition

    The material relationship that should control what must happen before commitment.

    Record object
  5. 05

    Human authority

    The accountable people who interpret uncertainty, accept evidence, and retain judgment.

    Record object
  6. 06

    Capital decision

    Continue, pivot, pause, stop, or require proof—with the rationale preserved.

    Record object
Machine preparation may support the recordAccountable authority remains human

Decision brief / DB-02

For executive consideration

A governed reading of the green project problem.

01 / The condition

A green project reports acceptable performance against its current plan. A good investment still supports the belief, outcomes, constraints, and value conditions that justified funding. The first does not prove the second.

02 / Why reporting misses it

Status systems are optimized around schedule, budget, scope, and issue reporting. Those measures can show whether the team is executing the plan, but not whether the plan still deserves the next commitment. When assumptions weaken gradually, status can remain green because the baseline has absorbed the change.

03 / Evidence to examine

  1. 01The original outcomes, assumptions, constraints, and benefit timing that justified funding.
  2. 02Scope reductions, rebaselines, workarounds, and deferred proof that preserve a green status.
  3. 03The difference between execution confidence and confidence in the remaining investment case.

04 / Authority involved

Delivery leadership can assess performance against the plan. The accountable sponsor or investment authority must decide whether the remaining outcome still warrants continued commitment.

05 / Executive question

“Can delivery appear healthy after the investment logic has weakened?”

06 / Illustrative condition

A program reports milestones as on track after scope has narrowed, benefits have moved beyond the planning horizon, and temporary workarounds have become permanent. Delivery may be controlled. The investment question is whether the remaining outcome still justifies continued funding.

Decision consequence

  • +Executives need to distinguish execution confidence from investment confidence.
  • +Rebaselining can restore schedule credibility without restoring the original value case.
  • +A green label should never close inquiry into changed assumptions or reduced outcomes.

Book connection

Volume I uses the Watermelon Project and funded-belief model to separate project condition from investment condition.

Related research

A Green Project Can Still Be a Bad Investment↗Benefits Do Not Come Inside the Box↗